Back To Turkistan (Part - 2b)
For Russia a large Muslim country like Turkistan may provoke similar irredentist movements among the Muslims of Russia. Besides, Russia may lose its influence in the region as well as big economic projects. Today it is easier for Russia to negotiate with each Central Asian leader separately taking into account the interests of each individually and bilaterally without coordinating with the neighbors in the region. On the contrary, it is more difficult to deal with a larger country that may have bigger interests. Russia also fears that a single Central Asian country may fall under the influence of such counties like Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, or Iran as it was in the first years of these countries' independence. Even though the Central Asian states are secular today, the regime may change in favor of Islamists in the future.
A single Turkic state in the region that carries pan-Turkist ideas may pose a threat to Iran, as the latter is concerned about the possibility of disintegration of its own Turkic population in Southern Azerbaijan.
China would oppose the creation of a Turkic state in Central Asia fearing similar movements like in Iran: Uyghurs would very much want to be part of the new Turkic state. It would be harder for China to influence on the region dealing with one country as opposed to five. So it will continue to resist, now, within the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. The fight against international terrorism dominates the SCO agenda and China is already taking advantage of its membership in the organization to silence the Uyghurs, unfortunately, through connivance of Central Asian Turks, members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.
Turkey is a natural supporter of this idea, both for natural reasons and in light of its unfulfilled dreams of becoming a legitimate part of Europe. Economic interests as well as future involvement of both Azerbaijans in this process would weaken the position of the Turkey’s geopolitical rival – Iran.
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